Threshold Effect of Financial Stress in the Relationship Between Global Crude Oil Price Volatility Spillovers and the Base Metals Market of Listed Companies
Keywords:
Oil price volatility, Basic metals market, Financial stress, Panel STAR, Listed companies in IranAbstract
This study investigates the spillover effects of global crude oil price volatility on the base metals market of companies listed in Iran during the 2013–2024 period. The primary objective of the study is to identify the role of oil price fluctuations and financial stress in the base metals market and to analyze the effects of firms’ production and structural variables. To analyze the data, the Panel Smooth Transition Regression (PSTR) model was employed, which is capable of examining both linear and nonlinear effects of independent variables as well as the role of the threshold variable. The independent variables include oil price volatility, labor force, gross fixed capital formation, and firm size, while financial stress acts as the threshold variable in the model. The findings indicate that oil price volatility and financial stress exert negative effects, whereas labor force, gross fixed capital formation, and firm size exert positive effects on base metals prices. The effects of the variables in the linear component of the model are relatively stable and direct; however, once the financial stress index exceeds the threshold level, nonlinear effects emerge and the intensity of the variables’ impacts either increases or adjusts. Specifically, an increase in financial stress intensifies the negative effect of oil price volatility and weakens the positive effects of labor force and gross fixed capital formation, while the positive effect of firm size is strengthened under high-stress conditions. Based on the findings, it is recommended that policies related to energy risk hedging, development of production infrastructure, enhancement of labor force skills, strengthening of the banking system, and support for long-term corporate investment be prioritized. Implementation of these policies can mitigate the adverse effects of oil price volatility and financial stress on the base metals market and enhance the stability of product prices.
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Copyright (c) 2025 Seyed Mohamad Hasani (Author); Marjan Damankeshideh; Amir Reza Keyghobadi, Seyed Nematollah Mousavi (Author)
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