Futures Studies on Investment Strategies of Iran's Social Security Organization with Emphasis on the Role of Technology: A Causal Layered Analysis Approach

Abstract

Strategic and efficient investments in social security organizations play a crucial role in generating sustainable financial resources, enhancing services for pensioners, and strengthening the financial standing of the organization—ultimately contributing to the advancement and consolidation of social security within society. Emerging financial technologies are of high importance in the investment strategies of social security organizations, as they can significantly improve decision-making processes, increase transparency, reduce risk, and enhance financial performance. The present study aims to conduct a foresight analysis of the investment strategies of Iran’s Social Security Organization, with a specific focus on the role of technology. This study employs the Causal Layered Analysis (CLA) approach. To enrich the findings, thematic analysis and focus group interviews were also utilized. In terms of orientation, the research is applied in nature, and methodologically, it is a multiple qualitative case study. The theoretical population includes experts in the fields of investment, social security, and technology. Judgmental sampling was applied, resulting in a sample size of 10 participants. The primary data collection tool in this research was the semi-structured interview. The findings indicate that at the litany level, challenges such as lack of transparency and low investment returns are prominent; at the systemic level, factors like weak digital infrastructure and legal gaps exert influence; at the worldview level, traditional managerial mindsets and lack of trust in financial technologies hinder innovation adoption; and at the myth/metaphor level, misconceptions about the high risk of financial technologies limit digital transformation. The adoption of financial technologies in the investment strategies of Iran's Social Security Organization can enhance productivity, transparency, and intelligent asset management. Achieving this transformation requires a shift in managerial attitudes, the development of digital infrastructures, legal reform, and continuous oversight. The implementation of these strategies can transform the organization from a traditional entity into an innovative player within the national digital economy, contributing to increased returns, cost reductions, and improved insurance services.