The Research Department of Economics and Management of Tadbir Nikan Business, Marketing, and Finance Open 3 Serial Number 15 2026 05 01 The Role of Earnings Quality and Future Returns: A Rational Decision-Making Simulation Approach The Role of Earnings Quality and Future Returns: A Rational Decision-Making Simulation Approach 1 24 10.61838/bmfopen.333 EN Journal Article 2025 07 10 <p>This study investigates the simultaneous effects of earnings quality, dividend policy, tax management, and firm growth—together with investor behavioral biases—on future stock returns and the mechanisms of rational decision-making in the Tehran Stock Exchange. Data were collected from 129 companies over a 22-year period (2001–2023) and analyzed using dynamic panel econometric methods. To simulate the decision-making process and assess the priority of variables, an artificial neural network and a payoff matrix based on game theory were employed. The findings indicate that high earnings quality, stable dividend policy, and conservative tax management increase future returns. Conversely, an aggressive tax approach and low-quality accruals lead to a decrease in returns. Incorporating behavioral indicators into the model significantly enhances its explanatory power, and the interaction between fundamental variables and behavioral biases plays a decisive role in the intensity of their effects. The game-theoretic portfolio model also confirms that the combination of high accounting compliance and proper tax management yields the highest probability of buy recommendations. Accurate prediction of stock returns requires an integrated approach in which both fundamental and behavioral information are simultaneously evaluated. Within such a framework, financial variables serve as the foundation for decision-making, but their final weighting is adjusted according to the psychological state of the market. The contribution of this study lies in providing an analytical tool for investors and policymakers to optimize portfolios, reduce the cost of capital, and enhance market efficiency.</p> https://www.bmfopen.com/index.php/bmfopen/article/download/333/256